Overall conclusion

Overall, the Welsh Government has worked well with partners in difficult circumstances to accommodate and support Ukrainians. However, in keeping the super sponsor scheme open until June 2022, the Welsh Government prioritised supporting the 1,000 arrivals it said it would during the initial phase. It did this despite the possibility of significantly more Ukrainians actually arriving, as happened. Also, it was over optimistic about how long those arriving would stay in their initial accommodation. These issues added to pressures on public services and led to higher costs than initially expected, despite efforts to secure value for money.

Since the initial phase of the response, the Welsh Government and partners have strengthened their focus on supporting Ukrainians to move out of their initial accommodation. The number in initial accommodation has fallen significantly since the peak in October 2022.

Key facts

• 7,118 Ukrainian arrivals with a host in Wales or through the super sponsor scheme from 6 April 2022 to 3 October 2023.
• 3,886 via the UK Government’s Homes for Ukraine individual UK host scheme from 6 April 2022 to 3 October 2023.
• 3,232 via the Welsh Government’s super sponsor scheme from 6 April 2022 to 3 October 2023.
• 56% of Ukrainian arrivals via the Welsh Government super sponsor scheme were female.
• 26% were aged under 18.
• approximately 40 pets were accommodated via the Welsh Government’s super sponsor scheme from 6 April 2022 to 3 October 2023.
• 1,382 people with VISAs who have not yet travelled to the UK but still have the right to do so under the Welsh Government’s super sponsor scheme as at 3 October 2023.
• 128 people still in Welcome Centres or other initial accommodation as at January 2024.
• 9,510 calls and 16,942 emails to the Welsh Government’s Contact Centre to support arrivals between March 2022 and October 2023. 
• £61 million spent by the Welsh Government on its Ukraine response in 2022-23 (not including funding received from UK Government and passed on directly to local authorities).
• At least £29.2 million net cost after additional UK Government funding retained by the Welsh Government is taken into account.
• £35.7 million budgeted expenditure for 2023-24.

Note: Expenditure and budget figures do not include additional costs to public bodies’ core budgets, for example the costs of providing healthcare services to Ukrainians. They also do not include Welsh Government staff costs.

Key messages

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 caused civilian casualties and the destruction of vital infrastructure. According to the United Nations, 6.2 million displaced people from Ukraine were recorded globally.

In March 2022, the UK Government announced plans to allow those fleeing war in Ukraine to enter the UK. At the time of drafting our report, there were three main routes through which people could come to, or remain in, the UK. Each route gave those Ukrainians approved a three-year visa:

• Homes for Ukraine – individual UK hosts, including in Wales, can sponsor Ukrainian nationals and their immediate family members.
• Ukraine Family Scheme – UK nationals and people settled in the UK could bring family members who are Ukrainian nationals to the UK.
• Ukraine Extension Scheme – open to Ukrainian nationals who had permission to be in the UK on or between 18 March 2022 and 16 November 2023 or who previously had permission to be in the UK and that permission expired on or after 1 January 2022.

[On 19 February 2024, the UK Government made changes to the Ukraine schemes, including closing the Ukraine Family Scheme to new applicants and reducing the length of the visa for the Homes for Ukraine scheme from three years to eighteen months for new applicants. It also agreed an extension for existing visa holders].

Welsh Ministers decided that the Welsh Government would be a Homes for Ukraine super sponsor. As a super sponsor, the Welsh Government took responsibility for Ukrainians without them needing to be matched with a host before receiving a visa. The Welsh Government’s super sponsor scheme has accounted for around 45% of Ukrainian arrivals in Wales.

We looked at whether the Welsh Government, working with its partners, is responding effectively to support Ukrainians in Wales. Our scope covered the Welsh Government’s leadership of public service efforts to support people who have arrived from Ukraine, focusing particularly on the super sponsor scheme.

We looked at both the initial response and how the response has changed over time. There is no absolute point at which the response shifted from emergency response to business as usual. Broadly, we consider the initial phase as the period to Autumn 2022. In designing our work, we recognised the challenges that public bodies faced in responding to a fast-moving international emergency.

We did not consider the merits of the Welsh Government’s policy decision to run the scheme. Nor did we look at immigration and borders policy, which is not devolved. Also, the National Audit Office has reviewed the UK Government’s Homes for Ukraine scheme, reporting in October 2023. We describe UK Government funding that the Welsh Government passed on to local authorities as part of the wider Homes for Ukraine scheme. However, our spending analysis focuses on costs associated with the Welsh Government’s response through its super sponsor scheme.

Key findings

Initial response planning, including financial planning and overall spend in 2022-23

In developing the super sponsor scheme, the Welsh Government drew on learning from the COVID-19 pandemic and previous refugee settlement schemes. It quickly put in place a team, and collaborative decision-making arrangements. It set up arrangements to share data securely, although some local authorities struggled with the initial system while the Welsh Government developed a new data sharing service.

In March 2022, the Welsh Government agreed to initially host 1,000 Ukrainians through the super sponsor scheme. Welsh Ministers decided to keep the scheme open to applications until 10 June 2022, around a month after the Home Office had already issued 1,000 visas. In doing so, the Welsh Government prioritised supporting the 1,000 people it said it would. It recognised the possibility that significantly more may arrive. By early October 2023, 3,232 Ukrainians had arrived under the scheme. A further 1,382 held visas with the right to travel to the UK and with an expectation they would be accommodated through the scheme.

The Welsh Government’s plan to accommodate all Ukrainians in Welcome Centres built on previous experience of resettlement schemes. However, the assumption that the Ukrainians would leave after a maximum of 12 weeks was extremely optimistic, in particular given known pressures on housing.

The Welsh Government initially estimated that it would cost around £18 million to accommodate 1,000 Ukrainians in Welcome Centres. More arrivals, and longer than expected stays in Welcome Centres and other initial accommodation, caused costs to rise. In 2022-23, the Welsh Government spent £61 million on the response. Taking account of UK Government funding retained by the Welsh Government, we estimate that the net cost to the Welsh Government in 2022-23 was at least £29.2 million.

Initial emergency response, including accommodation and wider support

The Welsh Government, with local government partners, secured 12 Welcome Centres, although details of most contracts were not published. Overall, we did not see clear evidence of a coherent approach to the publication of contract details in the context of procurement regulations and Welsh Government guidance, although officials have emphasised the importance of minimising publicity about specific locations. The Welsh Government adapted to the need for further accommodation by securing additional hotel and holiday park accommodation. Accommodation costs varied for different reasons, but we saw evidence of the Welsh Government seeking to secure value for money.

The Welsh Government funded a Contact Centre and Arrival Hubs around Wales to co-ordinate the flow of people. The Welsh Government and partners also worked together to provide a range of support to help Ukrainians under the super sponsor scheme settle and integrate. However, there have been some issues around access to healthcare.

Ongoing management of the response and future plans

After the initial phase, the Welsh Government and its partners have strengthened the focus on supporting Ukrainians to move out of initial accommodation. In doing so, the Welsh Government and partners have sought to promote independence and reduce disparity between those Ukrainians arriving under the super sponsor scheme and other groups in need. They have acted through a combination of incentives and creating additional housing capacity.

In particular:

• the Welsh Government has reduced wrap around services to bring them in line with support for other groups in need.
• under a refusals policy introduced from January 2023, Ukrainians face a surcharge if they refuse two reasonable offers of move-on accommodation. The Welsh Government has engaged with local authorities to promote consistent use of the policy although we received some feedback raising concerns about its application.
• the Welsh Government is funding partners to acquire additional affordable accommodation and is encouraging more individual hosts by topping up UK Government payments.
• the Welsh Government is also funding practical support through local authorities, for example to help with deposits and initial rents.

The Welsh Government has a plan for closing Welcome Centres and other initial accommodation. At the peak in October 2022, there were 32 sites open, accommodating 1,840 people. By January 2024, that had fallen to 4 sites, accommodating 128 people. The plan currently shows just two initial accommodation sites open into 2024-25.

The Welsh Government looks set to spend less in 2023-24 than the £40 million budget for the Ukraine response. In part, this is due to fewer Ukrainians arriving than modelled when the budget was set alongside other reductions in costs. On 17 October 2023, as part of its wider budget reset, the Welsh Government indicated that it would divert £4.3 million to other priorities.

The Welsh Government received £8.2 million as a consequence of UK Government spending to prevent homelessness among Ukrainians alongside other UK Government funding. However, the Welsh Government expects to meet the majority of the overall costs of the Ukraine response in 2023-24 from its own budget. At the time of drafting this report, the 2023-24 budget was £35.7 million although officials expect to underspend.

The Welsh Government has reduced the budget for 2024-25 from £20 million to £4.5 million, excluding homelessness support for local government. It did so due to fewer than expected arrivals during 2023-24 and the progress in moving Ukrainians out of initial accommodation. The longer-term position for the Ukrainians depends on UK and international developments and decisions. The three-year visas of most Ukrainians under the super sponsor scheme are set to expire between April 2025 and the end of June 2025. However, in February 2024 the UK Government announced that Ukrainians can apply for an 18-month extension under the Ukraine Permission Extension Scheme.

Any further UK Government decisions on visas and future funding are likely to have implications for the ongoing support provided to Ukrainians in Wales. There may also be work for Welsh public services and partners in supporting the repatriation process once it is safe for Ukrainians to return.

Recommendations

Planning for similar responses in future

The Welsh Government should develop and maintain contingency plans it can use if it decides to implement a similar scheme to accommodate refugees in future. These should apply lessons learned from what has worked well and what could have gone better for the Ukraine response, including:

• the use of the Contact Centre, Arrival Hubs and Welcome Centres;
• having a clear offer for refugees that takes account of other resettlement schemes;
• methods for assessing need from the service user perspective;
• methods for early modelling of demand, capacity and costs;
• governance arrangements agreed with partners in advance that can be set up quickly; and
• agreed data requirements and an agreed method for data sharing from the outset.

Transparency on procurement

The Welsh Government should review and update relevant guidance to:

• make clear that decisions to not publish Contract Award Notices, and the rationale for that, should be fully recorded at the time; and
• promote a consistent approach to publishing, or not publishing, notices where the Welsh Government works with partners to procure goods or services.     

The Welsh Government should work with local authorities to review whether to retrospectively publish Contract Award Notices for Welcome Centres that have closed.

Application of the refusals policy

The Welsh Government should establish whether local authorities are using the refusals policy consistently to support move-on while ensuring equitable treatment of Ukrainians in initial accommodation, regardless of their location.